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  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    +571.5
    (67%)
    6-3-1 in Last 10 MLB Picks
    NYM
    +122
    Money Line
    Picked: Jul 15 @ 1:15pm

    Analysis

    Sports betting isn’t just about analyzing matchups and picking a side or total, etc. There are proven systems that consistently deliver results over time. One I’ve trusted for many years focuses on the All-Star Game host team, which always plays at home right after the break. Since 2002, these teams are just 8-15, including a 2-6 mark since 2017. The only recent winners: the 2022 Dodgers and the 2025 Braves. I like the Mets’ Christian Scott against Aaron Nola, but with these systems, you set it and forget it. This approach has paid off, especially since most of these teams are underdogs. Additionally, all of the host teams have played on Friday, but this year the Phillies have to play on Thursday.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +1266
    (64%)
    118-66-1 in Last 185 MLB Picks
    Under 10
    -115
    Over/Under
    Picked: Jul 15 @ 3:02pm

    Analysis

    I'm not so sure that Phils manager Don Mattingly doesn't rest Kyle Schwarber and/or Bryce Harper after they competed in both Monday's and Tuesday's All-Star activities and then with Friday off for the Phils. Those two didn't get an AS break other than Wednesday. Plus, both bullpens are obviously fully rested behind the Mets' Christian Scott and Phillies' Aaron Nola, respectively. Scott has been pretty good; Nola hasn't but not quite as horrible lately. We push, we push.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +2002
    (70%)
    42-18 in Last 60 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    A. Nola
    Under 16.5
    -115
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Jul 15 @ 7:44pm

    Analysis

    DraftKings / Caesar’s. With only one game on the docket for Thursday, we might as well jump on this line early. Aaron Nola is under this line in 14/19 starts, including all eight home outings, where his ERA is 6.81. His pitch efficieny takes a nosedive against lefties, as his walk rate balloons to 10.8%, and his pitches per plate appearance 4.20. The Mets likely start 6-7 lefties, and had been hitting well (although nothing is given coming out of the break). But Nola has lost the trust of Don Mattingly, as he’s been pulled at 86 pitches or less in seven of his last eleven starts.
  • expert headshot
    Micah Roberts
    #4
    +1070
    (80%)
    8-2-1 in Last 11 MLB Picks
    NYM
    +112
    Money Line
    Picked: Jul 15 @ 8:00pm

    Analysis

    Christian Scott is playing his best baseball during his second full year starting for the Mets. He comes off one of his best outings of the season against the Royals, allowing no runs in five innings of a 6-2 Mets win. Three starts ago, the Mets beat the Phillies 6-2 with Scott allowing two runs. The Mets have won five of his last six starts, and I think they jump-start the second half with an immediate win against the Phillies. The Mets have 40 wins on the season, 16 games back of the Braves in the NL East, while the Phillies have won 54 games and are only two back. I think the Mets can take solace in what the Red Sox are doing.
  • expert headshot
    Micah Roberts
    +552
    (60%)
    3-2 in Last 5 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Soto
    YES
    +230
    Hit A Home Run
    Picked: Jul 15 @ 9:09pm

    Analysis

    The Mets' Juan Soto has hit .290 this season with 21 homers, and apparently, everyone else isn't hitting, as the Mets have only won 40 games and sit in last place. Soto hasn't hit a home run in his last three games against the Red Sox, but four games ago against the Royals, he went deep. In six games against the Phillies this season, he has seven hits in 19 at-bats, two home runs, and six walks. I think the Mets are going to take this game, and Soto would be the perfect send-off for the Mets offense, showing themselves that they're back for business in the second half. Aaron Nola is starting for Philly. Soto to hit a home run.

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